Showing posts with label Forex Technical Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forex Technical Analysis. Show all posts

Teknikal Analysis Mingguan

GBP


The pre-planned buying positions from key supports were realized but with damage to several points in attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked close activity parity of both parties in active bearish position gives reasons for assumptions about possible range rate movement but with preservation of bullish direction of planning for today. Considering this we assume the possibility of another test at 1.3680/1.3720 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.3780/1.3820, 1.3900/40 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.4000/20, 1.4060/80, 1.4180/1.4200/20. An alternative for sells will be below 1.3600 with targets 1.3480/1.3520, 1.3400/20, 1.3340/60.


EUR

The pre-planned buying positions from key supports were realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked in short-term outlook the advantage of bearish party activity gives reasons for assumptions about possible rate decrease but with preservation of bullish direction in trading operations planning for today. Hence and considering the descending direction of indicator chart we assume another test of the current month Low at 1.2880/1.2900, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.2940/60, 1.3000/20, 1.3080/1.3120 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.3160/80, 1.3280/1.3300, 1.3440/60. An alternative for sells will be below 1.2800 with targets 1.2720/40, 1.2640/60, 1.2580/1.2600.




JPY

The pre-planned breakout variant for sells was realized but with damage to several points in attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked activity fall of both parties does not give definiteness in the choice of planning priorities for today as well. Hence and considering the assumptions about rate return to 88.00/20 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 88.60/80, 88.90/89.00, 89.40/50, 89.80/90 and/or further breakout variant above 90.50 with targets 90.90/91.00. An alternative for sells will be below 87.80 with targets 87.20/40, 86.80/87.00.



FOREX Ltd
www.forexltd.co.uk
www.actionforex.com

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Foreign Exchange Market Commentary

SIGNAL GRATIS@. EUR/USD posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday due to short covering. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If it renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing is the next downside target.

USD/JPY closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it renews this month's rally, November's high crossing is the next upside target.

GBP/USD closed lower on Tuesday and below the early-December low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week's decline, monthly support crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above the reaction high crossing are needed to renew this month's rally.

USD/CHF closed lower due to light profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of this summer's decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing would temper the near- term friendly outlook in the market.

HY Markets
http://www.hymarkets.com

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How the Strong Euro Changes Things

The EUR/USD has reversed violently after hitting a high of 1.4719 today. I don't think that it is a coincidence the currency's rally stopped right at the 200-day SMA. 

If you caught my Daily Currency Focus yesterday on GFTForex.com, I wrote about the consequences of a strong euro. I think its important for everyone to give this a read:

The Euro's recent rally is a testament to the impact of interest rates on currencies. We have long said that this is the number one driver of currency trends and the decline in liquidity near the end of the year has only exacerbated the rally. 

Although the latest move in the Euro has some bank analysts revising up their EUR/USD 2009 forecasts to 1.60 and above, we want everyone to realize that the higher the EUR/USD rises, the more strain it will put on the Eurozone economy and the more reason it gives to the European Central Bank to cut interest rates. When the ECB first started to talk about pausing in January, the EUR/USD was trading around 1.26 and it has now appreciated 14 percent. Even though we also believe that the EUR/USD will continue to rise, we think that it may have a difficult time cracking above 1.48 and eventually, the trend will change. France's largest bank BNP Paribas has been hit hard by the Madoff scandal. This is an example of the troubles plaguing European corporations. Consumer prices declined 0.5 percent last month, giving the central bank plenty of flexibility to cut interest rates if necessary. 

Update today: The fact that the German IFO business confidence report also hit the lowest level since 1982 only confirms my belief. According to Barclays, the 11% rally in the trade weighted Euro is akin to a tightening of 175bp!

Watch out for a shift in ECB rhetoric. I still think that the US dollar is headed lower in 2009, but that does not preclude a retracement in the Euro that is driven by a surprisingly abrupt shift by the ECB's stance on their January rate cut stance.(actionforex.com)

Kathy Lien 
http://www.gftforex.com

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